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"The Naked Truth Behind Mechanical 'Black-Box' Trading Systems"

 

"The Road to Trading Wealth Cannot Be Automated -- The Myth of Mechanical Systems Dispelled"

 

 

Imagine a salesman called you up on the phone and told you that for just a few thousand dollars or so, he could give you a software program or computer chip that would allow you to automatically play the piano (or any instrument) in your home like a professional musician and you would never have to practice again.

 

You could amaze all your friends and family with your newfound skills. You would probably laugh the man off the phone. But if the same man offered to sell you a mechanical trading system that would make you wealthy without having to do any work, would you still laugh?

 

"Many people don't and they are eager to purchase such a system, but..."

 

.traders who believe in the myth that you can just hand over your hard earned capital to a computer program and sit back and collect checks and build wealth are not dealing with reality. They are driven by greed and laziness.

 

They want to make the money successful traders do, yet they do not want to put in the hard work necessary to develop the skills needed to become and stay successful.

 

Just think about it for a minute. If this were so, why don't the best and most successful traders just go out and buy the best one or two systems out there, hand them over a broker and just have them execute the systems while they lay on their beach chair in Tahiti and collect a never ending stream of checks from their trading account?

 

You wonder, because you see they are still coming in early and staying late and working their tails off to make their trading work. It's just not that simple. If it were, there would be no money left for all of us who wish to trade and make money. This is because the few or everyone who just bought the best system out there would hoard all the money and ruin the game.

 

"In Trading, You See, There Have To Be Losers For The Winners To Earn Money."

 

Complex human activities cannot be automated. Driving your car, flying an airplane, playing an instrument are just some of the examples of activities that cannot be programmed into a computer and work all the time.

 

Some of the elements of these activities can be programmed for sure, but the bottom line is that a human needs to apply their skills and talents to make the whole thing work when unexpected situations, such as when the Fed announces interest rate decisions, the government announces they are going to stop issuing 30 yr T-Bonds etc. arise.

 

Trading is no different.

 

As long as there has been trading and investing, there have been trading programs sold to the public. Most of these systems are sold for $3000 to $10,000 and up. I find it hard to believe that there has been a system sold to the public, which has produced consistent profits for more than one, or two years before the account was wiped out or that the individual just hung it up. Most of these systems sold are scams.

 

"That's Why RS Of Houston Workshop Doesn't Sell You A System -- We Teach You a Methodology."

 

.which you can use with your skills and talents to make decisions that will increase your odds of making consistent money in the markets.

 

One needs to learn to interpret market behavior and make decisions accordingly. Sometimes the markets are sideways and very dull, sometimes they are very volatile, and sometimes they run stops and reverse very quickly. These are all elements that go into trading decisions and a computer cannot see and/or feel these movements.

 

You get paid on the basis of how well you develop your trading skill. Trading is an art form and there is a certain amount of discretion and judgment on the part of the trader that is needed to make it work.

 

Not long ago, a well-known newsletter writer and successful trader (Robert Miner) posed a challenge to the readers of Club 3000. The following information is an excerpt from his comments on trading systems. Club 3000 is a newsletter that provides information and reviews of the current systems sold on the markets. Many of them sold for $3000, hence the name Club 3000.

 

His challenge was for.

 

.Any Of The Readers/Traders To Provide Evidence Of Ever Having Had A Single, Profitable Year From Taking Every Trade Of A System That They Had Purchased."

 

Not a single system purchaser or developer was able to provide any evidence of a profitable year by the purchased system. Surprised? We are not.

 

Why does this myth or illusion continue?

 

We believe there are two reasons. The first is that many of us want to believe there is an easy way. Many of us want to believe there is some formula or holy grail that is out there and can be purchased which leads to trading profits and guarantees success.

 

Whole industries are built on this myth. Bottom line.

 

"Success cannot be purchased. It must be earned!"

 

Trading is an art form that requires a time, commitment and practice. You must gain a certain amount of knowledge and make decisions. Judgment will always be required for success.

 

The second reason is that system software for testing trading ideas has become so easy and affordable to get. The left-brain trading junkies have a field day with system testing software. Most make it easy to test a certain set of trading rules.

 

Most people don't understand that a set of rules that will be profitable can be developed with any set of data. Even data randomly generated. But wait until you apply that set of rules to new data randomly generated under different market conditions. Get the point?

 

The most common complaint is that it worked before I traded it and that the developer is re optimizing these rules for the last 3 months to make the next 3 better.

 

What a bunch of horse doo doo!

 

Most of these developers have no actual trading experience.

 

Still interested in system trading? Futures magazine tracks the results of most of the public futures trading funds. Public funds are all system traders. For practical purposes they have unlimited computer, financial, and brainpower to develop and trade these systems. In 1995 the S&P was up 35% for the year.

 

In 1995 the average gain of the 205 public funds tracked by Futures was just 12.11%. About one quarter of the funds were down for the year. Only 19 or less than one out of ten funds beat the S&P for that year. None of them has ever beaten the S&P three years in a row.

 

Most of these public funds have more than 10 million under management, some a lot more. Altogether they represent billions of trading dollars. This is just a drop in the bucket compared to all the private trading funds.

 

"How much do you think it would be worth to any of these funds to be able to buy one of these profitable mechanical systems?"

 

You couldn't count that high!

 

Now, given this little bit of information above, do you still think you can go out and buy a profitable mechanical system? Hopefully you are thinking straight now and get the message that.

 

.Trading Is Work!

 

Success cannot be purchased. It's just that simple. However trading can be a lot of fun and quite profitable when approached correctly.

 

"RS Of Houston Workshop Gives You The Tools And Support You Need To Make Good And Consistent Trading Decisions That Will Last You A Lifetime."

 

It's simple. It just takes education and practice under real trading circumstances to learn to trade, or to quote Tom Baldwin, one of the largest bond traders in the CBOT Bond pit:

 

"Trading is like any other occupation, if you hang around long enough you're going to pick it up".

 

The reason most people don't is that they take too much risk, taking on positions that are too big for their account size and/or risking too much pr. trade, and "blow out" (i.e. lose all their trading capital) before they've had the chance to learn anything.

 

"Our Objective at the RS of Houston Workshop is to Provide You with the Risk Management and Trading Tools you Need for Survival in these Markets so you can Thrive and Prosper."

 

Get in touch with us and let us show you how you can become a real professional trader and live the life you really want. We are proud that our students tell us we offer the best trading course around.

Take our course and you will see why. We trade and teach live, real-time actual trading. We are not aware of anyone advertising a course out there who trades or teaches real-time with real money. We are the only ones. We have over 25 years combined trading experience that you can really benefit from. That's why you want to learn from us. Give us a call at (281) 286-9736. You will be glad you did.

 

 

RS of Houston Workshop    P.O.Box 890648 Houston, TX 77289-0648    (281) 286-9736   info@RSofHouston.com

RS of Houston Workshop  ©2003  All rights reserved.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.

 
 

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