In the last issue we
addressed some of the misinformation perpetuated throughout the
trading industry and dispelled some of the myths associated with
trading. In today's article we would like to shift our focus to
mistakes and misconceptions associated with the tools of trading and
finish up this 2 part series with a look at how a lack of a clear cut
trading plan and listening to news/tips/opinions can ruin your trading
results.
Over Spending on Computers and Software
Traders in general seem to
be hung up on technology. It never ceases to amaze us when we hear
from traders who've only got $5,000-$10,000 in their trading account,
yet possess all the latest technology, having invested thousands of
dollars in multiple flat screen monitors, 2-4 state of the art
computers and expensive trading/charting/analytical software.
These traders have seen
pictures of trading rooms packed with monitors and computers and
figure this is necessary to succeed in trading. While all that stuff
is nice and impressive, the fact of the matter is that if you can't
make money with 1 monitor more monitors won't help!
A more effective use of
your capital would be to keep it in your trading account. All that is
needed to start trading is an off the shelf, middle of the road
system. These days computers are so powerful that any system being
offered at computer stores meets or exceeds the minimum requirements
for most analytical and charting software packages.
If you are on a budget,
rather than spending your money on the fastest CPU, most amount of RAM
and the biggest hard drive, focus on the graphics card of the system
and the monitor. In other words, buy a low- to midlevel computer and
spend your money on a quality monitor with high resolution and a high
refresh rate, reason being that you are going to be spending a lot of
time in front of that monitor and your eyes will tire quickly if the
picture is fuzzy and/or flickering.
Using Commission Rates as the Sole
Criterion When Selecting a Broker
While commission rates are
increasingly becoming the main distinguishing factor between brokers
as trading moves off the trading floors and onto the electronic
exchanges they should by no means be the sole criterion in selecting a
broker.
If one trades on open
outcry markets one quickly finds that the quality of the fills
received can make a huge difference to the bottom line. In those
markets it certainly pays to spend an extra couple of bucks pr. turn
for a good floor broker who will get in there and fight for the best
price for you. While we have the greatest respect for those working on
the trading floors, it is no different in floor trading than any other
profession. There are those who are talented, ambitious and motivated
to do the best job they can and there are also those content to show
up and go through the motions in order to receive a paycheck.
This brings to mind a
memory of a student we had at one of our workshops back when the S&P's
traded in 5 cent ticks and were worth $500 a point. This gentleman was
convinced that all floor traders were crooks, in it solely for the
purpose of ripping him off, and was adamant that he would never pay
more than $15 pr. R/T, this at a time when $18-20 was the going rate.
He was quite proud of the
fact that he had managed to negotiate such a great rate and the other
students at the workshop were clamoring to get his broker's contact
info. Then during the live trading days at the workshop he was blown
away by the fills we received as we traded in front of students. When
asked about the fills he was getting he indicated that he would
routinely receive slippage of 20-30 cents in normal market conditions
(is actually fairly routine in today's markets, but was excessive back
then).
At the same time we were
seeing slippage of approx. 5-10 cents on average. Clearly, the floor
broker he had selected was doing an inferior job and this was costing
our student a significant amount of money. As far as we were concerned
he was paying an effective R/T commission of anywhere from
$115-$215!!! [i.e $15 + 20 to 40 cents slippage * $500] Needless to
say the other students in attendance quickly tore up the broker's
phone number upon learning this.
Among the factors important
to consider when selecting a broker:
i) For open outcry
trading:
a. That trader is calling
the arb desk on the floor, as opposed to an upstairs/central trading
desk that will be relaying the order to the arb desk.
b. Proximity of the arb
desk to the pit
c. Experience of arb desk
staff + floor brokers
d. Responsiveness, i.e
prompt phone answering, prompt callbacks on fills etc.
ii) For electronic
trading:
a. Trading platform
should have a direct API to GLOBEX, i.e. the order should be routed
electronically to GLOBEX without human intervention/interference.
b. Trading platform
should allow for realtime position and equity tracking
c. Trading platform
should incorporate real-time quotes, either natively (PhotonTrader,
PATS, Crossfire, J-trader etc.) or via 3rd party (BEST Online
incorporates quotes from eSignal or BarChart.com if trader is a
subscriber to one of those services).
Belief that More Information is Better
Traders are inundated with
confusing information and trading tips. It is everywhere, from the
talking heads on CNBC, to the news headlines flashing across the
trading screen to the online chatrooms, newsletters, hotlines etc. How
does one go about making sense of it all? The short answer is, you
don't need to in order to make money from price fluctuations in the
market, all that is required is an understanding of crowd psychology.
A number of traders believe
they need to gather all the information and understand it because
that's what we do in the real world when faced with a decision. Once
the information is mastered the secret to successful trading will
somehow be magically revealed. Nothing could be further from the
truth. No matter how much information you accumulate and sift through
you will never have all the pieces to the puzzle - if you are waiting
for that you will never make a trade.
What is needed therefore is
to develop skills for decision making under uncertainty, (i.e. a keen
understanding of probabilities and the ability to assess the risk
involved and reward associated with different trade outcomes). A
losing trade does not mean the decision to enter it was wrong, it may
have been, but it may also be a case of what is referred to in
statistics as: "Good decision, bad outcome", (i.e the odds favored a
particular move, but the move failed to materialize as expected).
The best advice for
beginning traders is: Forget all the conflicting information being
disseminated out there. All that is needed is a price chart. Leave it
to someone else to worry about all the news etc., the market's
collective assessment of that information is reflected in the price
action.
The fact of the matter is
that everyone has the same set of information to trade off of when it
comes to prices and the individual trader will never have the
resources to secure better information faster than the large brokerage
and proprietary trading houses. All one needs to to is to learn to
recognize their "footprints" on the charts, as evidenced by chart
patterns.
Lack of a Clear Cut Trading Plan
Along with
under-capitalization this probably ranks as the #1 reason traders
fail. Beginning (and some more experienced) traders will frequently be
swayed by intraday news and price action. They may have started the
day with a clear plan for the day, but when the bell rings and the
market starts they lose focus and become mesmerized by the next tick
as the price action unfolds, alternately looking to buy or sell every
couple of ticks/minutes and getting whipped all over the place.
A trading plan should give
one criteria to measure trend against and determine a direction to
trade. Once the direction has been decided the picture is
significantly clearer as one side of the market has been taken out of
consideration and one is free to focus on locating low risk
opportunities to enter in the direction of the trend.
Overtrading - Trading Round the Clock
The aforementioned lack of
a trading plan coupled with today's lightning fast executions
available through electronic trading as well as the extended opening
hours for electronic trading get a number of traders in trouble. When
they see all the price movement and translate it into dollar terms it
is very easy to become impatient waiting for good trading
opportunities.
One may get caught up in
the minute to minute fluctuations to the point where he loses sight of
the overall picture and starts buying and selling every couple of
minutes (seconds even) to grab a couple of ticks, just because the
trading software is so responsive and the fills so fast that he thinks
he can get away with it.
We are so used to getting
paid for our time in the real world (i.e by the hour) that it is
difficult to sit in front of the screen patiently waiting for a
trading opportunity (that may or may not present itself for another
hour or two). Seeing all this fluctuation the trader is tempted to
"hurry up and make some money" and take a couple of quick trades to
get paid for his time while waiting for the next trade that qualifies
under his trading plan, however illogical that may sound.
Clearly, if the trader knew
this type of trading to be profitable, based on his research, he would
have incorporated it into his trading plan. The very fact that it is
not part of the plan should eliminate such trades from consideration,
but it is easy to get bored and impatient and hard to resist forcing
things when the next trade is but a mouseclick away.
It may sound cliche, but it
is true that the patience to wait for proper setups and the discipline
to act on them when they occur is the hallmark of a good trader. When
there is nothing to do under your trading plan, that's what you do -
nothing. If you need more excitement in your life try bungee-jumping,
sky-diving or other similar pursuits to spice it up. Don't look for
excitement or to alleviate boredom in the marketplace, it is no place
for that and will quickly eat up your capital if you try.
Ron Schoemmell and Valdi
Thorkelsson
R.S. of Houston Workshop
www.rsofhouston.com
About the authors: The
authors have accumulated 25+ years combined experience in trading and
have been running the R.S. of Houston Workshop since 1996. Info about
their workshops can be found at
www.rsofhouston.com